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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next fall.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to many people who had hoped organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials really wanted the proposal to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and at times completely against.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to confront the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his administration managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. However, this doesn't prevent this deal looking like the best chance possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the world. This attempt is justified.